NEWS • COMPETITIVE

2017 All-Star: Science Driven Predictions
Posted on 12/07/2017 by eSports Team



A “science”-driven prediction on who will win ASE 2017

In the legendary 1993 movie Jurassic Park, Dr. Ian Malcolm famously said, “Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether they could, they didn’t stop to think if they should.” Behold. We -- all of you voters and me -- are scientists of the “could” variety. And we have created dream teams that will clash at the 2017 All-Star Event one last time this season for pride. For honor. And most importantly, for one more chance to take down South Korea.

But did we build the best possible teams? Or will this end up with the esports equivalent of a T-Rex (Faker) rampaging through everything? Who’s Jeff Goldblum and who are the raptors? It’s a metaphor with no end in sight.

Using science (hard data, soft data, no data, and made-up data), I will narrow down the list of contenders until only Korea the winner remains. Here are this year’s contenders:

Brazil

China

Europe

Korea

LMS

North America

Turkey

SEA


1. Scientific theory #1: The winning team needs to literally be able to beat the Korean team.

In order to win, you’ll probably need to go through Korea. And in order to be the most likely team to defeat the Korean team, you can’t be the Korean team. Being able to beat yourself [consistently] is a skill that takes years to properly hone and is reserved only for the best heartbreakers of the world. And the only Korean team that has successfully mastered that talent is KT Rolster, but none of their players made it to this year’s ASE. Therefore, Korea has absolutely no shot at beating itself and thus cannot win the ASE.  

Remaining teams:

Brazil, China, Europe, Korea, LMS, North America, Turkey, SEA


2. Scientific theory #2: The winning team needs to actually be a dream team.

This means there can’t be an individual team in the region that is better (on an individual level). They need to be the kind of super team that makes other super teams seethe with envy. And that means another early exit for the NA LCS representatives. Let’s, for a moment, put aside the fact that not a single player from the 2017 Summer Split All-Pro 1st Team got voted into ASE 2017. Hauntzer, MikeYeung, and Bjergsen will give you a glimpse at what TSM’s top half of the map will look like in 2018. If MikeYeung gets first blood (which might be a foreign concept to TSM fans after their Worlds run), they’ll throw their life savings into TSM making Spring Finals. Every subsequent kill after that will raise expectations even further. Two kills? World Champions. Three kills? World Cup.

But TSM’s actual roster also features the West’s best bot lane over the past two or three years in Zven and mithy. I realize they couldn’t have been voted onto the NA LCS team this year anyway, but it’s hard to say NA’s team is a dream team when the actual TSM roster is better. It’s not even a meme team -- Sneaky’s kind of alone on that front. And if there are no dreams and no memes, then I’ve gotta beam this team outta here.

Remaining teams:

Brazil, China, Europe, Korea, LMS, North America, Turkey, SEA


3. Scientific theory #3: The winning team will beat Uzi’s team in the Finals.

The most famous 2nd Place finisher ever feels like an oxymoron considering they always end up fading -- especially relative to whoever they lost to. There was YellOw in Brood War. The Buffalo Bills squad that lost four consecutive Super Bowls. Jerry West and Elgin Baylor in the NBA. These are -- you may have noticed -- not world wide names.

Uzi is probably the second most famous (heh) player in League of Legends. He ironically conquered the 1v1 event last year, even as team championships continue to elude him. This year, the Chinese All-Star team is stacked with talented players in every position. But the outcome seems inevitable. It is hard to argue against the hard science of some 10+ 2nd Place finishes. A sample size of more than five is basically fool-proof in my personal bizarro world.

As Ricky Bobby said in the movie Talladega Nights, “If you ain’t first, you’re Uzi.”

Remaining teams:

Brazil, China, Europe, Korea, LMS, North America, Turkey, SEA


4. Scientific theory #4: The winning team can’t be from the former wildcard regions.

Levi just played 12 different junglers in 12 games to help Vietnam secure their spot at this year’s ASE. Which is exactly like when my jungler dies 12 times in a game but each time they respawn they feet like they are a new and stronger champion and not the same one that just died thirty seconds ago.

Anyway, this science is harder than the Uzi science. Could they win? Sure. I’ve been telling myself that for years while watching the NA LCS teams at international events. Turkey played World Champion Samsung Galaxy better than even SKT T1 did at Worlds. Brazil’s team is the very definition of a dream team for all CBLOL fans -- an upstart in top, legends in mid and jungle, and then the most famous bot lane in Brazil. And Vietnam got ganked by Visa issues, so the SEA team going in lieu of that won’t have had much time to practice with each other -- not to mention the language barriers.

And in an event where shotcalling and synergy matter less, that means individual talent can shine. The field is much closer when it comes to mechanics. That’s your hope if you are from one of these regions. But it doesn’t take much for hope to become nope, and until proven otherwise, I can’t say in earnest (the scientific community would blacklist me forever if I did) that they will win this event.

Remaining teams:

Brazil, China, Europe, Korea, LMS, North America, Turkey, SEA


5. Scientific theory #5: The winning team must be capable of taking play seriously.

The EU LCS faithful somehow managed to not select one person from G2 Esports -- the squad that won their last four splits -- for their dream team. Was it voter fatigue? Were they trying to out-meme their NA brethren? Well done, I guess? PowerOfEvil has been one of Europe’s best players for the past few years, but he’s not even going to be playing in EU anymore. And IgNar got voted in because he had the series of his life against SK telecom T1 in the Worlds Quarterfinals. However, I still think this is one of the dreamier dream teams. And EU has played with a chip on their shoulder for the last two years.

The LMS dream team is essentially a collection of onomatopoeias. It doesn’t get much cooler than that. Be. Be. Fo. Fo. Ziv. One of the actual storylines going into this event, though, is that this will be Bebe’s last event as a professional player (barring a comeback). He is the last active player from the 2012 Taipei Assassins squad that won the World Championship and recently announced his retirement. He is a legend in the LMS scene, and this will give the LMS some extra impetus to give him a proper sendoff.

Both of these squads have star power. And they have something to prove. But only one dream team has what it takes to defeat Uzi in the Finals.


Which means I predict the winner of your 2017 All-Star Event will be…


Korea.